AFPM Annual Meeting 2026: What refining leaders are learning about operating in sustained disruption

At last month’s AFPM Annual Meeting, one thing was clear. Disruption is no longer a phase the refining industry is working through. It’s now the environment it’s operating in.

The agenda was heavily shaped by events in the Middle East, with ongoing conflict influencing everything from supply stability to long-term planning. Around 20% of global crude transport is currently impacted, and that uncertainty is feeding directly into operational decision-making. What stood out wasn’t just the scale of disruption but the shift in its nature. We’ve moved from demand shocks to supply-side instability.

Key takeaways

• Supply-side disruption is now a defining condition
• Workforce stability can no longer be assumed
• Restart capability is a critical gap
• Risk is prolonged and systemic
• Culture and leadership directly impact performance
• Integrated approaches are increasingly necessary

Workforce disruption is a critical risk

A key operational challenge discussed at AFPM is workforce disruption.

Examples of rapid demobilization, in some cases tens of thousands of workers stood down in a matter of hours, are creating significant uncertainty around restart. The challenge is no longer just how to restart operations. It’s whether the workforce returns, how quickly they re-engage, and how effectively they perform when they do.

Organizations with stronger cultural environments are seeing better workforce return and engagement. This is not a soft benefit. It directly impacts operational recovery.

Restart capability is an emerging industry gap

While shutdown planning is relatively mature, restart capability is not.

Across AFPM sessions, there was a clear recognition that the industry lacks experience in restarting operations at scale following full shutdowns. This is where complexity is now surfacing.

Restarting operations requires coordination across functions, alignment across leadership, and clarity under pressure. It also exposes issues that weren’t visible during steady-state operations. This isn’t just an operational challenge. It’s a system-wide capability gap.

Risk is now prolonged and systemic

A second major shift discussed at AFPM is the duration of disruption.

There’s growing acceptance that instability and market volatility will persist, with ongoing geopolitical pressure continuing to impact markets and operations. While some regions, particularly the US, benefit from domestic production, the broader risk environment remains elevated.

Organizations are no longer planning for recovery. They are planning to operate within continuous uncertainty and disruption.

Culture and leadership are central to performance

Across both formal sessions and side conversations, one theme was consistent: culture plays a critical role in navigating these challenges.

Organizations with strong alignment, clear leadership and engaged teams are better able to:

• Re-engage their workforce
• Execute complex restarts
• Maintain performance under pressure

This is not about culture as an initiative. It is about how effectively the organization functions when conditions are most challenging.

The industry needs more integrated approaches

There’s a growing mismatch between the challenges organizations are facing and how support is typically structured.

Many still approach shutdown, restart, and recovery as separate phases, often supported by different partners. In reality, disruption does not follow clean boundaries.

There is an increasing need for approaches that connect strategy, execution and sustainment as part of a continuous system, rather than fragmented interventions.

What this means for refining and petrochemical leaders

Disruption is not going away.

The organizations that will perform best are those that:

• Build restart capability as a core competence
• Actively manage workforce engagement and culture
• Align leadership around rapid, coordinated decision-making
• Operate with integrated, end-to-end systems

Leading organizations are already taking steps to strengthen restart readiness, workforce re-engagement and leadership alignment.

If these challenges are on your agenda, addressing them early will directly shape how effectively your organization performs under disruption.

About AFPM

The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) is the leading trade association representing the producers of fuels and petrochemicals. Its members include global refining companies, petrochemical manufacturers and midstream operators. https://afpm.org